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Makro · Rotasi sektor · Kekuatan relatif

Rotasi sektor 3 bulan: uang pindah dari bank ke komoditas

IHSG naik 11,6% dari dasar Juni tapi masih 28% di bawah puncak Januari. Energi & bahan tambang yang tadinya paling parah kini memimpin; bank yang tadinya bertahan kini tertinggal. Makro sudah fase akhir siklus, tapi gerak pasar mirip pantulan awal siklus.

11 September 2026Indeks sektor IDX tutup 10 Sep 2026 · 63 hari bursa (11 Jun – 10 Sep) · rilis publik BPS, BI, OJK, S&P Global

IHSG 3 bulan

+11,6%

3 bulan sebelumnya −29,1%

IHSG tahun ini

−24,7%

−27,9% dari puncak 20 Jan

BI-Rate

5,75%

naik Jun, ditahan Jul & Agt

Inflasi Agt

3,19%

inti 2,92%, dua-duanya naik

PDB Q2

5,29%

dari 5,61% di Q1

PMI pabrik Agt

49,8

balik ke bawah 50

Brent

$101

+53% setahun

Asing tahun ini

−Rp70 tn

jual bersih s.d. 28 Agt

Tiga bulan ini adalah pantulan di dalam pasar turun. IHSG naik 11,6% dari dasar Juni tapi masih 27,9% di bawah puncak 20 Januari, sebelum guncangan MSCI soal saham publik (free float). Kepemimpinan sektor berbalik total: dua sektor terburuk kuartal lalu, Energi dan Bahan Tambang, jadi dua yang terkuat. Sektor yang kuartal lalu satu-satunya bertahan, Keuangan, turun ke urutan delapan. Di sisi makro, ekonomi sudah masuk fase akhir siklus: inflasi naik, BI menaikkan bunga demi rupiah, PMI pabrik di bawah 50. Tapi gerak pasar justru seperti pantulan awal siklus yang dipimpin saham komoditas ber-beta tinggi. Ketegangan dua hal inilah inti bacaan ini.

Bagian 1 — Peta panas kinerja sektor

Sektor IDX-IC dipetakan ke 11 sektor GICS. Mutlak = kenaikan indeks sektor resmi IDX selama 63 hari bursa. Relatif = selisih terhadap IHSG (+11,6%). Momentum 3 bulan menggabungkan kenaikan 1 bulan dengan perubahan rasio sektor ÷ IHSG selama 21 hari, jadi terlihat apakah gerak kuartalan ini masih menguat atau sudah melemah.

Sektor GICS	Indeks IDX	Mutlak 3 bln	Relatif vs IHSG	1 bln	Mom. RS 21 hr	Momentum 3 bln	Urutan	Urutan kuartal lalu
Energi	IDXENERGY	+22,2	+10,5	+10,3	+6,5	Menguat	1	10
Konsumsi primer	IDXNONCYC	+17,6	+6,0	+2,6	−0,8	Melemah	2	2
Bahan tambang & dasar	IDXBASIC	+17,0	+5,4	+3,7	+0,2	Bertahan	3	11
Industri	IDXINDUST (+TRANS)	+15,3	+3,6	+5,9	+2,3	Menguat	4	6
Properti	IDXPROPERT	+12,7	+1,0	+2,0	−1,5	Melemah	5	9
Konsumsi sekunder	IDXCYCLIC	+10,9	−0,7	+0,9	−2,5	Melemah	6	7
Utilitas	keranjang*	+10,8	−0,8	+2,2	–	Campur	7	–
Keuangan	IDXFINANCE	+8,9	−2,7	+2,7	−0,8	Tertinggal	8	1
Teknologi	IDXTECHNO	+7,1	−4,6	−0,8	−4,1	Memburuk	9	3
Kesehatan	IDXHEALTH	+6,3	−5,3	−1,1	−4,5	Memburuk	10	8
Telekomunikasi & media	keranjang*	+6,1	−5,5	+6,3	–	Baru menyusul	11	–
IHSG	COMPOSITE	+11,6	0,0	+3,5	–	–	–	–

* IDX-IC tidak punya sektor Telekomunikasi maupun Utilitas; keduanya tergabung di IDXINFRA (+9,9%, relatif −1,7%). Keranjang dihitung sama bobot: Telekomunikasi & media = TLKM ISAT EXCL MTEL TOWR TBIG EMTK SCMA MNCN; Utilitas = PGAS BREN PGEO POWR KEEN ARKO RAJA MPOW. Transportasi (IDXTRANS +12,0%) dilebur ke Industri mengikuti GICS. Urutan kuartal lalu = 63 hari bursa yang berakhir 11 Jun.

Apa arti urutannya

Pembalikan total di dua ujung. Energi (10 → 1) dan Bahan Tambang (11 → 3) adalah yang paling dalam jatuhnya Maret–Juni (−34,7% dan −36,4%), lalu memimpin pantulan. Keuangan (1 → 8) satu-satunya yang bertahan saat jatuh (−14,8%), lalu tertinggal saat naik. Ini pola pantulan beta, belum bukti pergantian pemimpin yang tahan lama.
Konsumsi primer pemimpin yang aneh. Urutan dua di kedua kuartal, dengan gejolak harga paling rendah setelah Keuangan. Sektor bertahan yang memimpin baik saat jatuh maupun naik lebih menunjuk ke cerita lindung inflasi dan biaya impor rupiah, bukan selera risiko murni.
Kesehatan dan Teknologi tertinggal terus, dua-duanya satu-satunya yang minus sebulan terakhir dan masih lebih dari 14% di bawah rata-rata 200 hari.

Yang terjadi di bawah indeks (scan pipeline, 574 saham layak)

Porsi saham di atas MA200: Industri 62%, Konsumsi primer 49%, Konsumsi sekunder 49%, Bahan tambang 45%, Energi 41%, Keuangan 33%, Infrastruktur 26%. Kekuatan indeks Energi ditopang produsen besar; saham energi tengah-tengah belum balik ke rata-rata jangka panjangnya.
Porsi asing dari nilai transaksi 10 hari (ditimbang nilai): Keuangan +9,1%, satu-satunya sektor yang asingnya beli bersih; Kesehatan −13,4%, Infrastruktur −7,8%, Energi −0,4%. Pada 10 Sep saja asing jual 21,6% dari nilai transaksi Keuangan, terpusat di dua bank terbesar.
Tembus tertinggi 20 hari: Konsumsi sekunder 8, Konsumsi primer 6, Industri 5, Bahan tambang 4, Energi 2. Reli komoditas dibawa beberapa saham raksasa, bukan partisipasi luas.

Bagian 2 — Posisi di siklus ekonomi

Indikator	Terakhir	Arah	Bacaan siklus
Pertumbuhan PDB	5,29% (Q2)	Melambat dari 5,61%	Tengah ke akhir
Pengangguran	4,65% (Mei)	Turun	Akhir: tenaga kerja ketat
Inflasi umum / inti	3,19% / 2,92% (Agt)	Naik 3 dari 4 bulan	Akhir
Suku bunga acuan	5,75%	Naik Jun, ditahan Jul–Agt	Akhir, tapi demi rupiah bukan meredam permintaan
PMI pabrik	49,8 (Agt)	Turun dari 50,2	Akhir / awal kontraksi
Kredit bank	13,6% (Jul), kredit investasi +25%	Menguat	Tengah: bertentangan dengan PMI
Keyakinan konsumen	118,5 (Agt)	Naik pertama dalam 4 bulan	Pulih

Fase mana. Pakai kerangka empat fase Fidelity (Awal: pulih, bunga longgar, kredit bangkit · Tengah: puncak pertumbuhan · Akhir: pertumbuhan di atas tren tapi melambat, inflasi naik, bunga diketatkan · Resesi: kontraksi), ekonomi riil Indonesia terbaca fase akhir. Dua hal mengganggu label itu: kredit 13,6% lebih mirip fase tengah, dan pengetatan BI adalah pertahanan rupiah yang dekat rekor terlemah, bukan respons ekonomi kepanasan. Conover, Jensen, Johnson & Mercer (2008, Journal of Investing) menemukan sinyal kondisi moneter (longgar vs ketat) lebih tajam membedakan kinerja sektor dibanding fase kalender; dengan sinyal itu Indonesia ketat.

Fase	Biasanya unggul (Fidelity; Stovall 1996; Conover dkk. 2008)	Biasanya lemah
Awal	Konsumsi sekunder, Keuangan, Properti, Industri, Teknologi	Utilitas, Energi, Kesehatan
Tengah	Teknologi, Telekomunikasi, Industri	Bahan tambang, Utilitas
Akhir	Energi, Bahan tambang, Konsumsi primer, Kesehatan, Utilitas	Teknologi, Konsumsi sekunder, Keuangan
Resesi	Konsumsi primer, Utilitas, Kesehatan	Industri, Properti, Teknologi, Bahan tambang

Cocok atau menyimpang dari pola sejarah

Cocok: Energi, Bahan tambang, Konsumsi primer memimpin; Teknologi dan Konsumsi sekunder tertinggal secara relatif; Keuangan tertinggal karena bunga naik menekan margin. Tiga dari lima sektor "fase akhir" ada di tiga teratas.
Menyimpang: Kesehatan (10) dan Utilitas (7) seharusnya diuntungkan tapi tidak. Kesehatan lemah karena masalah spesifik rumah sakit; keranjang Utilitas diseret satu nama energi terbarukan raksasa (−21,8%) padahal pembangkit yang lebih kecil naik 14–44%. Industri (4, menguat) juga keluar pola: ditarik alat berat dan pelayaran yang bergerak seperti turunan komoditas, bukan siklus belanja modal.
Kesimpulan: ini lebih mirip guncangan harga komoditas (Brent +53% setahun, batu bara Newcastle +44%) yang menumpang pantulan pasca-crash, bukan pergantian fase siklus. Dua-duanya bergerak lebih cepat dan lebih gampang berbalik.

Bagian 3 — Matriks penggerak makro

Faktor makro	Kondisi sekarang	Arah	Sektor diuntungkan	Sektor terancam
Suku bunga	BI 5,75%; Fed 3,50–3,75%, kenaikan Sep dihargai ~58%	Domestik cenderung tahan/naik selagi rupiah lemah; global hawkish	Bank ber-CASA tinggi; konsumsi primer yang bisa naikkan harga	Properti, industri berutang besar, konsumsi sekunder
Inflasi	3,19% umum, 2,92% inti; masih dalam target, naik	Naik, didorong pangan & emas	Energi, bahan tambang, hulu konsumsi primer (CPO, unggas)	Margin hilir konsumsi primer, volume ritel
Pertumbuhan	5,29%; konsumsi 2,67 pp, investasi 2,06 pp	Melambat, masih >5%	Industri terkait kredit investasi; bank lewat volume	Siklikal kalau PMI lemah merambat ke tenaga kerja
Dolar	USD/IDR ~17.700 dekat rekor Mei; DXY ~99–100	Rupiah tertekan; FOMC 16 Sep penentu	Eksportir berpendapatan dolar: batu bara, nikel, CPO, migas	Importir: kesehatan, ritel, belanja modal telko, utilitas berutang dolar
Spread kredit	Yield & CDS dilaporkan melebar di Sep karena fiskal; target defisit 2,9% PDB; NPL 2,10%	Melebar di level negara; kualitas aset bank stabil	Konsumsi primer, penghasil kas berutang rendah	Bank (buku obligasi), properti, infrastruktur BUMN
Keyakinan konsumen	118,5, dari titik rendah 116,8; ekspektasi 127,6	Pulih	Ritel, telekomunikasi	Kalau mandek, ritel kena dulu
PMI	49,8; output & tenaga kerja turun 5 dari 6 survei; optimisme tertinggi 7 bulan	Kontraksi ringan	Konsumsi primer, kesehatan (secara teori)	Pabrikan domestik, semen, baja

Bagian 4 — Sinyal arus dana & posisi

Sumber	Yang ditunjukkan sekarang	Batasannya
Beli/jual bersih asing harian IDX (statistik BEI, per saham & sektor)	Jual bersih tahun ini ~Rp70 tn s.d. 28 Agt. Agustus beli bersih Rp11 tn, arus masuk pertama yang berarti sejak Januari; 1–4 Sep +Rp2,7 tn; 10 Sep −Rp1,95 tn terpusat di BBCA, BBRI, ISAT. Pipeline: Keuangan satu-satunya sektor yang asingnya beli bersih 10 hari.	Hanya pasar reguler; transaksi tutup sendiri mengacaukan angka harian; bendera "asing" mencakup uang lokal yang memutar lewat luar.
Arus ETF negara (EIDO; EPFR Asia ex-Jepang)	EIDO ~+$347 jt arus masuk bersih 12 bulan meski indeks jatuh; NAB Juli +10,1%.	Satu kendaraan di AS, kecil dibanding omzet lokal; bobot free-float MSCI melebihkan bank besar dan mengecilkan saham komoditas yang memimpin.
Statistik investor domestik (jumlah SID KSEI, AUM reksa dana saham OJK, omzet per tipe investor BEI)	Media lokal menyebut IHSG bertahan saat asing jual karena investor domestik menyerap.	Bulanan, terlambat; tidak menunjukkan sektor tujuan uang domestik; AUM mencampur arus dan kinerja.
Survei manajer global (BofA FMS bobot EM/ASEAN; bobot MSCI EM)	Status EM dipertahankan 24 Jun tapi masih ditinjau sampai Nov 2026; batas saham publik dinaikkan ke 15%, tenggat Mar 2027. Uang indeks menahan diri sampai tinjauan selesai.	Niat, bukan posisi; Indonesia bobot kecil di EM jadi rinciannya tipis.
Posisi CFTC/LME; sentimen opsi	Tidak ada data CFTC untuk saham IDX dan tidak ada pasar opsi IDX yang likuid, jadi rasio put/call per sektor tidak ada. Proksi yang bisa dipakai: posisi managed-money CFTC di WTI dan DXY, posisi nikel/timah LME, relevan untuk Energi & Bahan tambang.	Proksi tingkat dua; Brent dikliring ICE di luar CFTC; batu bara tidak punya data posisi.

Lapisan regime model internal. Jump Model pipeline (λ=10, mayoritas 5 seed) memutar IHSG ke risk-on (mundur ke 5 Agt, 5/5 seed sepakat). Di level sektor hanya Keuangan yang risk-on (sejak 4 Agt); Energi, meski +22%, tetap risk-off karena gejolak 28% membuat model tidak berani. Filter regime menghukum gejolak, bukan arah, dan memang terlambat menangkap rotasi ber-beta tinggi.

Bagian 5 — Uji tekanan tesis rotasi

Rotasi yang ditinjau: dari pertahanan yang dipimpin Keuangan (kuartal lalu +14,3% relatif) ke kepemimpinan komoditas siklikal (Energi +10,5%, Bahan tambang +5,4% relatif). Rotasi "kualitas ke beta komoditas".

Penjelasan konsensus. Konflik Timur Tengah mendorong Brent di atas $100 dan batu bara di atas $145, durian runtuh untuk produsen batu bara & migas sekaligus penopang neraca luar untuk rupiah. Di saat yang sama bank kehilangan status tempat berlindung: kenaikan BI Juni dan langkah likuiditas September menekan margin, jual asing di bawah bayang MSCI terpusat di bank-bank terbesar yang berat di indeks, dan penyerapan likuiditas perbankan oleh pemerintah menaikkan biaya dana.

Yang membenarkan rotasi berlanjut

Brent bertahan di atas $90 dan Newcastle di atas $130 sampai Q4, dan revisi laba sektor Energi berubah positif setelah laporan Q3 akhir Oktober.
Partisipasi menyusul: porsi saham Energi di atas MA200 naik dari 41% melewati 50%; momentum RS 21 hari tetap positif (sekarang +6,5%).
Arus mengikuti harga: porsi asing di Energi berubah dari −0,4% menjadi beli bersih; surplus dagang melebar dan melonggarkan rupiah.

Yang mematahkan atau menandai pembalikan

Peredaan konflik membawa Brent ke bawah $80. Energi punya gejolak 20 hari tertinggi dari semua sektor (28%); pembalikan komoditas membongkar rotasi seperti ini dalam hitungan minggu.
BI berbalik: rupiah stabil lalu ada isyarat penurunan bunga, bank dinilai ulang. Pantau momentum RS 21 hari Keuangan (−0,8%) berubah positif; ini sudah satu-satunya sektor yang dinilai risk-on oleh model regime.
Risiko indeks menyala: sinyal negatif MSCI menjelang November, atau kenaikan Fed 16 Sep mendorong DXY ke atas 102, memicu keluarnya asing secara luas yang paling memukul saham komoditas menengah ber-beta tinggi.

Preseden sejarah

Siklus super batu bara 2021–22: Energi IDX memimpin ~18 bulan (Q2 2021–Q3 2022); kepemimpinan berakhir dalam satu kuartal setelah batu bara memuncak, lalu Energi tertinggal 12 bulan berikutnya.
Pemulihan komoditas 2016: Bahan tambang & Energi memimpin ~12 bulan setelah dasar 2015; Keuangan merebut kembali saat BI mulai menurunkan bunga.
Lonjakan minyak paruh pertama 2008: Energi memimpin ~6 bulan lalu berbalik keras bersama Brent.
Polanya: rotasi berbasis komoditas di IDX bertahan 6–18 bulan dan berakhir saat komoditasnya berbalik, bukan saat valuasinya mahal. Lamanya kali ini bergantung pada variabel geopolitik yang tidak bisa diramal model fundamental mana pun.

Bagian 6 — Agenda riset

Dua keputusan bank sentral dalam sepekan. FOMC 16 Sep, lalu Rapat Dewan Gubernur BI. Apakah BI naik lagi di USD/IDR 17.700, dan bagaimana panduannya soal tekanan margin? Pantau rasio kekuatan relatif Keuangan/Energi sepanjang minggu itu.
Penilaian MSCI November. Saham besar mana yang masih di bawah batas saham publik 15%, seberapa cepat pemenuhan sampai Mar 2027, dan apakah MSCI mencabut pembekuan tinjauan? Ini menentukan apakah uang pasif kembali ke bank.
Laba Energi vs harga spot. Laporan Q3 akhir Oktober menunjukkan seberapa banyak Brent $100 dan batu bara $145 sudah sampai ke harga jual riil, mengingat jeda kontrak. Bandingkan luas revisinya dengan analog 2021.
Isi arus masuk Agustus. Apakah beli bersih asing Rp11 tn terpusat di dua bank terbesar (dan sudah sebagian dibalik 10 Sep), atau tersebar ke saham komoditas? Data BEI per sektor yang menjawab.
Tarik-menarik fiskal-moneter. Yield 10 tahun, CDS, rasio penawaran lelang, dan selisih antara kredit 13,6% dengan pertumbuhan dana pihak ketiga. Kalau pemerintah terus menyerap likuiditas bank, biaya dana naik dan tesis margin bank melemah terlepas dari BI.

Bagian 7 — Cek visual & chart lanjutan

Tiga titik balik yang butuh chart bertahun-tahun, bukan tabel, dengan tautan TradingView ke indeks sektor dan saham terkuat kuartal ini.

Titik balik	Yang diperiksa	Chart
Kekuatan relatif Energi vs batu bara, 2020–2026	Plot IDXENERGY ÷ COMPOSITE bersama batu bara Newcastle. Apakah kenaikan RS +9,4% tiga bulan ini mirip tembusan 2021 dari dasar bertahun-tahun, atau reli lawan-tren 2023 yang gagal di MA 200 mingguan yang menurun? Sektor masih 30,7% di bawah tertinggi 52 minggu.	IDXENERGY · AADI +54% · BUMI +47% · MEDC +31% · AMMN +45%
Siklus margin bank saat bunga naik demi rupiah	Bandingkan IDXFINANCE dan rasio harga BBCA vs BBRI/BMRI di 2018 (BI +175 bp), 2022–23, dan 2026. Di episode lalu selisih antara bank ber-CASA tertinggi dan bank BUMN melebar saat bunga naik dan menutup saat mulai turun. Apakah 2026 sudah sampai ekstrem yang lalu?	IDXFINANCE · BBCA · BBRI · BMRI
Gejolak laba siklikal: Bahan tambang & Industri vs puncak 2022	Tumpangkan IDXBASIC dan IDXINDUST dengan puncak 2022 dan dasar 2024–25. Industri +46% setahun tapi −30,7% dari tertinggi 52 minggu, selisih terlebar dari semua sektor, tanda letupan-lalu-runtuh di beberapa saham berat. Apakah pantulan ini menelusuri ulang keruntuhan itu atau membangun dasar baru?	IDXBASIC · IDXINDUST · INTP +31% · ANTM +19% · UNTR +20% · ASGR +52%

Pemimpin kuartal lain per sektor: Konsumsi primer AALI +36%, JPFA +26%; Telekomunikasi TOWR +39%, ISAT +32%; Utilitas POWR +44%; Konsumsi sekunder ERAA +69%; Properti SMRA +18%; Kesehatan MIKA +21%.

Catatan. Pemetaan IDX-IC ke GICS hanya pendekatan; baris Telekomunikasi dan Utilitas adalah keranjang sama bobot; kenaikan indeks tidak termasuk dividen. Komentar yield obligasi & CDS bersifat kualitatif, angkanya belum diverifikasi. Ini bacaan kerangka untuk belajar, bukan saran beli/jual sektor atau saham mana pun.

Sumber

BPS: PDB Q2 2026 +5,29% · Inflasi Agustus 3,19% · Pengangguran 4,65%
BI tahan 5,75% Agustus · BI naik ke 5,75% Juni · Keyakinan konsumen 118,5
PMI Agustus 49,8 · OJK: kredit 13,58% Juli
USD/IDR ~17.730 · Rupiah rekor terlemah · Brent $101 · Batu bara $147
FOMC 16 Sep, 3,50–3,75% · DXY ~99,4
Asing jual bersih Rp70,36 tn · Beli bersih Rp11 tn Agustus · Jual bersih 10 Sep
Tinjauan klasifikasi pasar MSCI 2026 · Saham publik dinaikkan ke 15% · IHSG 28 Jan, guncangan MSCI
Yield, CDS, fiskal · Risiko defisit fiskal · Arus dana EIDO
Kerangka: Fidelity AART, The Business Cycle Approach to Sector Investing; Stovall, S&P Guide to Sector Investing (1996); Conover, Jensen, Johnson & Mercer, "Sector Rotation and Monetary Conditions", Journal of Investing (2008); Moskowitz & Grinblatt, "Do Industries Explain Momentum?", Journal of Finance (1999).

Macro · Sector rotation · Relative strength

Three-month sector rotation: money moved from banks to commodities

IHSG rose 11.6% off the June low but is still 28% below the January peak. Energy and Materials, the worst sectors last quarter, now lead; Financials, last quarter's only defender, lags. The macro reads late-cycle while the tape behaves like an early-cycle bounce.

11 September 2026IDX sector indices, close 10 Sep 2026 · 63 sessions (11 Jun – 10 Sep) · public releases from BPS, BI, OJK, S&P Global

IHSG 3M

+11.6%

prior 3M −29.1%

IHSG YTD

−24.7%

−27.9% from 20 Jan high

BI-Rate

5.75%

+25 bp Jun; held Jul, Aug

CPI Aug

3.19%

core 2.92%, both rising

GDP Q2

5.29%

from 5.61% in Q1

Mfg PMI Aug

49.8

back below 50

Brent

$101

+53% y/y

Foreign YTD

−Rp70 tn

net sell to 28 Aug

The quarter was a rebound inside a bear market. IHSG rose 11.6% off the June low but still sits 27.9% below its 20 January peak, after the MSCI free-float shock. Leadership flipped completely: the two worst sectors of the prior quarter, Energy and Materials, became the two strongest, while the prior quarter's sole defender, Financials, fell to eighth. Macro sits late-cycle (inflation rising, the central bank hiking to defend the currency, factory PMI below 50) while the equity tape behaves like an early-cycle bounce led by high-beta commodity names. That tension is the analytical core of this note.

Part 1 — Sector performance heatmap

IDX-IC sectors mapped to the 11 GICS Level 1 sectors. Absolute is the price return of the official IDX sector index over 63 sessions; relative is the difference to IHSG (+11.6%). 3M momentum combines the one-month return with the 21-day change in the sector ÷ IHSG ratio, so it shows whether the quarterly move is still accelerating or fading.

GICS sector	IDX proxy	Absolute 3M	Rel. to IHSG	1M	RS mom. 21d	3M momentum	Rank	Prior-qtr rank
Energy	IDXENERGY	+22.2	+10.5	+10.3	+6.5	Accelerating	1	10
Consumer Staples	IDXNONCYC	+17.6	+6.0	+2.6	−0.8	Fading	2	2
Materials	IDXBASIC	+17.0	+5.4	+3.7	+0.2	Holding	3	11
Industrials	IDXINDUST (+TRANS)	+15.3	+3.6	+5.9	+2.3	Accelerating	4	6
Real Estate	IDXPROPERT	+12.7	+1.0	+2.0	−1.5	Fading	5	9
Consumer Discretionary	IDXCYCLIC	+10.9	−0.7	+0.9	−2.5	Fading	6	7
Utilities	basket*	+10.8	−0.8	+2.2	–	Mixed	7	–
Financials	IDXFINANCE	+8.9	−2.7	+2.7	−0.8	Lagging	8	1
Information Technology	IDXTECHNO	+7.1	−4.6	−0.8	−4.1	Deteriorating	9	3
Health Care	IDXHEALTH	+6.3	−5.3	−1.1	−4.5	Deteriorating	10	8
Communication Services	basket*	+6.1	−5.5	+6.3	–	Late catch-up	11	–
Benchmark IHSG	COMPOSITE	+11.6	0.0	+3.5	–	–	–	–

* IDX-IC has no Communication Services or Utilities sector; both sit inside IDXINFRA (+9.9%, −1.7% relative). Baskets are equal-weight: Communication Services = TLKM ISAT EXCL MTEL TOWR TBIG EMTK SCMA MNCN; Utilities = PGAS BREN PGEO POWR KEEN ARKO RAJA MPOW. Transportation (IDXTRANS +12.0%) is folded into Industrials per GICS. Prior-quarter rank uses the 63 sessions ending 11 Jun.

What the ranks say

Full reversal at the extremes. Energy (10 → 1) and Materials (11 → 3) were the deepest losers of the March–June leg (−34.7% and −36.4%) and led the rebound. Financials (1 → 8) was the only sector to hold up in the sell-off (−14.8%) and lagged the bounce. This is the classic beta snap-back pattern, not yet evidence of a durable leadership change.
Staples is the odd leader. Second in both quarters, with the lowest realized volatility of any sector after Financials. A defensive sector leading through both a crash and a rebound points to inflation-hedge and rupiah-import-cost narratives rather than pure risk appetite.
Health Care and Technology are the persistent laggards, the only two sectors with negative one-month returns, both more than 14% below their 200-day averages.

Breadth beneath the indices (pipeline scan, 574 tradable names)

Share of names above the 200-day average: Industrials 62%, Staples 49%, Discretionary 49%, Materials 45%, Energy 41%, Financials 33%, Infrastructure 26%. Energy's index strength is carried by large producers; the median coal or oil name has not yet reclaimed its long-term average.
Foreign share of traded value over 10 days (value-weighted): Financials +9.1% is the only sector with net foreign buying; Health Care −13.4%, Infrastructure −7.8%, Energy −0.4%. On 10 September alone foreigners were net sellers of 21.6% of Financials value, concentrated in the two largest banks.
20-day breakouts: Discretionary 8, Staples 6, Industrials 5, Materials 4, Energy 2. The commodity rally is being expressed through a few heavyweights rather than broad participation.

Part 2 — Business cycle positioning

Indicator	Latest	Direction	Cycle read
Real GDP growth	5.29% y/y (Q2)	Slowing from 5.61%	Mid-to-late: above trend, decelerating
Open unemployment	4.65% (May)	Falling	Late: labour market tight
Headline / core CPI	3.19% / 2.92% (Aug)	Rising 3 of last 4 months	Late: re-accelerating, food and gold led
Policy rate	5.75%	Hiked Jun, held Jul–Aug	Late: tightening, but for FX defence rather than demand
Manufacturing PMI	49.8 (Aug)	Fell from 50.2	Late / early contraction: output and jobs down 5 of 6 months
Bank credit growth	13.6% y/y (Jul), investment loans +25%	Accelerating	Mid: contradicts the PMI
Consumer confidence	118.5 (Aug)	First rise in 4 months	Recovering from an April-2025 low

Phase assessment. On the Fidelity Asset Allocation Research Team four-phase template (Early: recovery, easy policy, credit rebound · Mid: peak growth, neutral policy · Late: above-trend but slowing growth, rising inflation, tightening · Recession: contraction), Indonesia's real economy reads Late-cycle. Two features complicate the label: credit growth of 13.6% is more Mid-cycle than Late, and the tightening is a currency-defence action against a rupiah near record lows rather than a response to domestic overheating. Conover, Jensen, Johnson and Mercer (2008, Journal of Investing) showed that the monetary-conditions signal, expansive versus restrictive, discriminates sector returns better than the calendar phase; on that signal Indonesia is restrictive.

Phase	Historically stronger (Fidelity AART; Stovall 1996; Conover et al. 2008)	Historically weaker
Early	Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Real Estate, Industrials, IT	Utilities, Energy, Health Care
Mid	IT, Communication Services, Industrials	Materials, Utilities
Late	Energy, Materials, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Utilities	IT, Consumer Discretionary, Financials
Recession	Consumer Staples, Utilities, Health Care	Industrials, Real Estate, IT, Materials

Alignment and divergence from the template

Aligned: Energy, Materials and Staples leading; IT and Discretionary lagging on a relative basis; Financials lagging as rate hikes compress net interest margins. Three of the five "late-cycle" sectors are the top three.
Divergent: Health Care (rank 10) and Utilities (rank 7) should be beneficiaries in this phase but are not. Health Care's underperformance is stock-specific in the hospital chains; the Utilities basket is dragged by one very large renewables name (−21.8%) while the smaller power producers are up 14–44%. Industrials (rank 4, accelerating) is also off-template, pulled by heavy-equipment and shipping names that behave as commodity derivatives rather than capex-cycle plays.
Interpretation: the rotation reads less as a textbook cycle turn and more as a commodity price shock (Brent +53% y/y, Newcastle coal +44% y/y) layered on a post-crash mean reversion. Both are faster-moving and more reversible than a true business-cycle phase change.

Part 3 — Macro driver matrix

Macro factor	Current state	Direction of change	Sectors that benefit	Sectors at risk
Interest rates	BI-Rate 5.75%; Fed 3.50–3.75% with a September hike priced at roughly 58%	Domestic bias to hold or hike while rupiah is weak; global bias hawkish	Banks with high CASA share; Staples with pricing power	Real Estate, high-leverage Industrials, Discretionary
Inflation	3.19% headline, 2.92% core; inside 1.5–3.5% target but rising	Up, food and gold driven	Energy, Materials, upstream Staples (CPO, poultry)	Downstream Staples on margin, Discretionary retail on volumes
GDP growth	5.29%, household consumption 2.67 pp, investment 2.06 pp	Decelerating, still above 5%	Industrials tied to investment credit; Financials on volume	Cyclicals if the PMI weakness feeds into hiring
USD strength	USD/IDR ~17,700, near the May record; DXY ~99–100	Rupiah under pressure; FOMC 16 Sep is the swing factor	USD-revenue exporters: coal, nickel, CPO, oil & gas	Importers: Health Care, Discretionary retail, telecom capex, USD-debt Utilities
Credit spreads	Bond yields and CDS reported widening in September on fiscal worries; deficit target 2.9% of GDP; NPL gross 2.10%	Widening at the sovereign level; bank asset quality stable	Staples, low-leverage cash generators	Financials (bond books), Real Estate, state-linked Infrastructure
Consumer confidence	118.5, up from a 116.8 low; expectations 127.6	Recovering	Discretionary retail, Communication Services	A stall hits Discretionary first
PMI	49.8; output and jobs down in 5 of 6 surveys; confidence at 7-month high	Contracting mildly	Defensive Staples, Health Care in principle	Domestic manufacturers, Materials (cement, steel)

Part 4 — Fund flow and positioning signals

Source	What it currently suggests	Limitations
IDX daily foreign net buy/sell (BEI statistics, by name and sector)	YTD net sell about Rp70 tn to 28 Aug. August saw a Rp11 tn net buy, the first meaningful inflow since the January shock; 1–4 Sep +Rp2.7 tn, then 10 Sep −Rp1.95 tn concentrated in BBCA, BBRI, ISAT. Pipeline data show Financials as the only sector with net foreign buying over 10 days.	Regular-market trades only; crossing deals distort daily prints. Foreign custodian flags mix genuine offshore funds with round-tripping domestic money.
Country ETF flows (EIDO, and Asia-ex-Japan funds via EPFR)	EIDO shows about +$347 m net inflow over 12 months despite the drawdown; July NAV return +10.1%.	A single US-listed vehicle, small relative to onshore turnover; MSCI free-float weighting over-represents the large banks and under-represents the commodity names leading this quarter.
Domestic investor statistics (KSEI SID counts, OJK equity mutual-fund AUM, BEI investor-type turnover)	Local press attributes IHSG resilience during net foreign selling to domestic investors absorbing the supply.	Monthly, lagged, and does not identify which sectors domestic money rotates into. AUM moves conflate flows with performance.
Global manager surveys (BofA Global Fund Manager Survey EM/ASEAN allocation; MSCI EM weight)	EM status retained on 24 June but under review to November 2026; free-float floor raised to 15% with a March 2027 deadline. Index-tracking money is on hold until the review clears.	Surveys report intentions, not positions; Indonesia is a small EM weight so country detail is thin.
CFTC / LME positioning and options-based sentiment	No CFTC data exist for IDX equities and there is no liquid IDX options market, so sector put/call ratios are unavailable. Usable proxies: CFTC managed-money positioning in WTI and the DXY, LME nickel and tin positioning, relevant to Energy and Materials.	Second-order proxies only. Brent is ICE-cleared and outside CFTC reporting; coal has no positioning data.

Internal regime overlay. The pipeline's Statistical Jump Model (λ=10, 5-seed majority) flipped IHSG to risk-on with a backdated start of 5 August, unanimous across seeds. At sector level only Financials is risk-on (since 4 August); Energy, despite +22%, remains risk-off because its 28% realized volatility keeps the model from committing. Regime filters penalise volatility, not direction, and lag a high-beta rotation by design.

Part 5 — Rotation thesis stress test

The rotation under review: from Financials-led defence (prior quarter, +14.3% relative) to commodity-cyclical leadership (Energy +10.5%, Materials +5.4% relative), a "quality-to-commodity beta" rotation.

Consensus explanation. Middle East conflict pushed Brent above $100 and Newcastle coal above $145, a direct earnings windfall for Indonesian coal, oil and gas producers and an external-balance support for the rupiah. Simultaneously, banks lost their haven status: BI's June hike and September liquidity measures compress margins, foreign selling under the MSCI free-float cloud is concentrated in the largest, most index-heavy banks, and government absorption of banking liquidity to fund the deficit raises funding costs.

Would validate continuation

Commodity prices hold: Brent above $90 and Newcastle above $130 through Q4, with Energy earnings revisions turning positive after Q3 results in late October.
Breadth catches up: the share of Energy names above their 200-day average rises from 41% through 50%, and the sector's 21-day RS momentum stays positive (currently +6.5%).
Flows follow price: foreign participation in Energy turns from −0.4% to net buying, and the trade surplus widens on higher export receipts, easing the rupiah.

Would invalidate or signal reversal

De-escalation: Brent back below $80. Energy carries the highest 20-day volatility of any sector (28%); commodity-price reversals unwind these rotations within weeks.
BI pivots: a stabilised rupiah followed by rate-cut guidance re-rates Financials. Watch Financials' 21-day RS momentum (−0.8%) turning positive; it is already the only sector the regime model rates risk-on.
Index risk flares: a negative MSCI signal ahead of November, or a Fed hike on 16 September pushing DXY above 102, triggers broad foreign exit that hits high-beta commodity mid-caps hardest.

Historical precedents

2021–2022 coal supercycle: IDX Energy led IHSG for roughly 18 months (Q2 2021 to Q3 2022); leadership ended within a quarter of coal peaking, and Energy then underperformed for the following 12 months.
2016 commodity recovery: after the 2015 trough, Materials and Energy led for about 12 months; Financials regained leadership once BI resumed cuts.
2008 H1 oil spike: Energy leadership lasted about six months and reversed violently once Brent turned.
Pattern: commodity-driven rotations on IDX have lasted six to eighteen months and ended when the underlying commodity price turned, not when valuations became stretched. Duration this time depends on a geopolitical variable that no fundamental model forecasts well.

Part 6 — Research agenda

Two central-bank decisions in one week. The FOMC decides on 16 September; BI's Board of Governors meets the following days. Does BI hike again at USD/IDR 17,700, and how does guidance treat net interest margin pressure? Track the Financials-versus-Energy relative-strength ratio through that week.
MSCI November assessment. Which large-caps remain below the new 15% free-float floor, what is the pace of compliance ahead of March 2027, and does MSCI lift the index-review freeze? This decides whether passive money returns to the banks.
Energy earnings versus spot. Q3 results in late October will show how much of $100 Brent and $145 coal has reached realized selling prices, given contract lags. Compare revision breadth to the 2021 analogue.
Composition of the August inflow. Was the Rp11 tn foreign net buy concentrated in the two largest banks (and therefore already partly reversed on 10 September), or spread into commodity names? Sector-level BEI data answer this.
Fiscal-monetary interaction. Monitor the 10-year yield, CDS, auction bid-to-cover, and the gap between 13.6% loan growth and deposit growth. If the government keeps absorbing banking liquidity, funding costs rise and the Financials margin thesis deteriorates independent of BI.

Part 7 — Visual verification and chart follow-up

Three inflection points that need a multi-year chart rather than a table, with TradingView links to the sector index and the quarter's strongest constituents.

Inflection point	What to inspect	Charts
Energy relative-strength ratio versus coal (2020–2026)	Plot IDXENERGY ÷ COMPOSITE against Newcastle coal. Does the current +9.4% three-month RS gain resemble the 2021 breakout from a multi-year base, or the 2023 counter-trend rallies that failed at the falling 200-week average? The sector is still 30.7% below its 52-week high.	IDXENERGY · AADI +54% · BUMI +47% · MEDC +31% · AMMN +45%
Bank margin cycle under FX-defence hikes	Compare the Financials index and the BBCA-versus-BBRI/BMRI price ratio through 2018 (BI +175 bp), 2022–23, and 2026. In prior episodes the valuation spread between the highest-CASA bank and the state banks widened during hikes and closed once cuts began. Has the 2026 spread reached prior extremes?	IDXFINANCE · BBCA · BBRI · BMRI
Cyclical earnings volatility: Materials and Industrials versus the 2022 peak	Overlay IDXBASIC and IDXINDUST with their 2022 highs and 2024–25 troughs. Industrials is +46% over twelve months yet −30.7% from its 52-week high, the widest gap between trailing return and drawdown of any sector, a blow-off-and-collapse signature in a few heavy constituents. Is the rebound retracing that collapse or building a new base?	IDXBASIC · IDXINDUST · INTP +31% · ANTM +19% · UNTR +20% · ASGR +52%

Other quarterly leaders by GICS sector: Staples AALI +36%, JPFA +26%; Communication Services TOWR +39%, ISAT +32%; Utilities POWR +44%; Discretionary ERAA +69%; Real Estate SMRA +18%; Health Care MIKA +21%.

Caveats. The IDX-IC to GICS mapping is approximate; the Communication Services and Utilities rows are equal-weight proxy baskets; index returns exclude dividends. Bond-yield and CDS commentary is qualitative and levels were not verified. Educational framework only; no recommendation to buy or sell any sector or security.

Sources

BPS: GDP Q2 2026 +5.29% · August inflation 3.19% · Unemployment 4.65%
BI holds 5.75% in August · BI raises to 5.75% in June · Consumer confidence 118.5
S&P Global PMI August 49.8 · OJK: loan growth 13.58% July
USD/IDR ~17,730 · Rupiah record low · Brent $101 · Newcastle coal $147
FOMC 16 Sep, 3.50–3.75% · DXY ~99.4
Foreign YTD net sell Rp70.36 tn · August net buy Rp11 tn · 10 Sep net sell
MSCI 2026 Market Classification Review · Free float raised to 15% · IHSG 28 Jan MSCI shock
Bond yields, CDS, fiscal · Fiscal deficit risk · EIDO fund flows
Frameworks: Fidelity AART, The Business Cycle Approach to Sector Investing; Stovall, Standard & Poor's Guide to Sector Investing (1996); Conover, Jensen, Johnson & Mercer, "Sector Rotation and Monetary Conditions", Journal of Investing (2008); Moskowitz & Grinblatt, "Do Industries Explain Momentum?", Journal of Finance (1999).